PETE: Memo to Iowa State fans: Stop over-thinking. Sit back and enjoy what could be an historic finish

Don’t ruin your mind, trying to figure Iowa State’s chances of reaching the Big 12 Conference championship game. There’s about a hundred different scenarios, maybe more. Frying brain cells isn’t that important – especially with four games remaining in this crazy regular season.

I mean, we’ve just gone through the most contentious presidential campaigns of our lives. And now we’re trying to navigate a path to Arlington, Texas and the Big 12 title game?

Here’s an idea for the Iowa State Chapter of Anxious Fans (and you know who you are):

Relax. Trust that Matt Campbell and his staff have figured out why the offense lacked rhythm, sync and tempo during last Saturday’s one-point home loss against Texas Tech. By now, they’ve fixed it.

Trust that a defense that didn’t always provide the calming affect it provided the first seven games, has been repaired enough to beat a Kansas team (1-4, 2-6) that should be beatable in possibly a close game Saturday afternoon at Arrowhead Stadium.

Stop over-thinking. Trust your instincts. Sit back (in your stadium seat or on your couch) and enjoy what could be the most historic finish in Iowa State football history.

Beat Kansas in Saturday’s 2:30 p.m., game on FS1. Win at home against Cincinnati. Win on the road at Utah. Finish the regular season by beating Kansas State back at Jack Trice . . .

And the Cyclones have done their part to play in another title game.

I haven’t gone through all the if-then situations, of which there are many. I abandoned a long time ago stressing over things out of my control – like who beats whom between now and season’s end.

Three teams that have realistic shots, have one conference loss or less. Eight teams – and that’s half the league -- have two losses or fewer. Here’s how the contenders finish the regular season:

BYU (5-0, 8-0): at Utah, vs. Kansas, at Arizona State, vs. Houston.

Iowa State (4-1, 7-0): vs. Kansas, vs. Cincinnati, at Utah, vs. Kansas State. (Loss against Texas Tech).

Colorado (4-1, 6-2): at Texas Tech, vs. Utah, at Kansas, vs, Oklahoma State. (Loss against Kansas State).

Kansas State (4-2, 7-2): vs. Arizona State, vs. Cincinnati, at Iowa State). (Losses against Houston, BYU).

Texas Tech (4-2, 6-3): vs. Colorado, at Oklahoma State, vs. West Virginia. (Losses against TCU, Baylor).

Cincinnati (3-2, 5-3): vs. West Virginia, at Iowa State, at Kansas State, vs. TCU. (Losses against Texas Tech, Colorado).

Arizona State (3-2, 6-2): vs. UCF, at Kansas State, vs. BYU, at Arizona. (Losses against Cincinnati, Texas Tech).

West Virginia (3-2, 4-4): at Cincinnati, vs. Baylor, vs. UCF, at Texas Tech. (Losses against Kansas State, Iowa State).

Note that among the most logical (at this time) championship game participants:

Iowa State doesn’t play BYU or Colorado.

BYU not only misses the Cyclones, but also doesn’t play Cincinnati, Colorado, Texas Tech and West Virginia.

Colorado also doesn’t play Arizona State and West Virginia.

So, with all those variables, my advice is to:

Just Hang Loose.

**

THE RED ZONE

First down: Did you catch the latest version of Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy unscripted? When talking about some fans’ response to his 0-6, 3-6 team this week, the veteran coach told reporters “people can voice their opinion, and in most cases, the people that are negative and voicing their opinion are the same ones that can't pay their own bills. They're not taking care of themselves. They're not taking care of their own family. They're not taking care of their own job. But they have an obligation to speak out and complain about others because it makes them feel better. But then, in the end, when they go to bed at night, they're the same failure that they were before they said anything negative about anybody else.”

Second down: A day later, Gundy posted this on X: "I apologize to those who my comments during Monday's media call offended. My intent was not to offend any of our fans who have supported us and this program through the years." Say what? Then what was it? Is he daring the university to fire him?

Third down: You saw the first CFP ratings, I presume. Takeaways: The CFP is in bed with the Big Ten (four teams in the top eight). CFP prefers Indiana blowing out opponents, over teams winning in the margins. “Indiana’s strength of schedule is not as strong as BYU’s, but what Indiana has done on the field when they’re winning those games -- they’re winning by double digits,” CFP committee chairman Warde Manuel said on ESPN.

Fourth down: I had to do a double-take on this one. Iowa State 0-3 in football games at Arrowhead Stadium? That’s what the book says – 2002 against Florida State, and then 2009 and 2010 in Farmageddon against Kansas State. Each was a one-score game. The 2002 game included Seneca Wallace not getting credit for what looked like a last-minute touchdown against Florida State. Even Seminoles coach Bobby Bowden thought it was a touchdown. I was on the field, near that corner of the end zone. From where I stood? Touchdown. By the way – replay overturns started eight seasons later.

**

Here we go, our weekly guesses – and believe me – they’re guesses.

Iowa (4-2, 6-3) at UCLA (2-4, 3-5)

8 p.m., Rose Bowl (Friday) (FOX)

Randy Peterson: A long trip to the West Coast at the end of a short week of practice won’t be a problem. The Bruins aren’t too good. Kaleb Johnson will run silly through and around UCLA’s nationally 11th-best rush defense.Iowa 30, UCLA 17.

Chris Hassel:Bruins are trending up but so are the Hawkeyes. Really interesting game. I think Sullivan throws a pick and it’s tight for a while but Iowa is better. Iowa 31, UCLA 20

Chris Williams:This game looked like a slog a few weeks ago. Now, both teams are playing their best football of the season. It’s always tough to head out west. Hawks are the better team, but I expect a close one. Iowa 27, UCLA 24

Keith Murphy:Hawkeyes stay hot behind Brendan Sullivan, win in the Rose Bowl for the first time since Randy Peterson was writing for the East Elementary Dispatch. Iowa 31, UCLA 24.

Andrew Downs:The Hawkeyes slay the west coast demons as they hit their stride in November. Iowa 31, UCLA 13.

Matt Van Winkle:Iowa is playing like a Top 20 team right now. How will Sullivan handle his first road test as the starter against a UCLA team fresh off a win in Lincoln? I like Iowa in a close game, with Sullivan rushing for a late TD to put this one away. Iowa 28, UCLA 17.

Jake Brend:I don’t know if I’ve been more unsure of a pick all year. UCLA has definitely been playing better, but still isn’t a good team. Kirk hates to go west, and the late Friday kick will be weird. UCLA is 11th in country against the run, but Northwestern was top 20 as well. I think Iowa still finds a way because they are the better team. Iowa 27, UCLA 14.

**

Iowa State (4-1, 7-1) vs. Kansas (1-4, 2-6)

2:30 p.m., Arrowhead Stadium, FS1

Peterson:Finally, the Cyclones win a game at Kansas City’s Arrowhead Stadium. They’re motivated for all the historic stuff that’s still possible for Campbell’s team. It’ll be home-game like for Iowa State. I’m expecting its best all-around game this season. Iowa State 33, Kansas 20.

Hassel:Cyclones get the boost they need from a stunning home loss and put together their best game in about a month. Iowa State 34, Kansas 17. 

Williams:Bizarre to see a 7-1 team as only a 3-point favorite vs. a two-win Kansas team. That’s because the Jayhawks have been in every game this season and should have won many more. Reminds me a lot of the Cyclones two seasons ago. Iowa State 30, Kansas 27 

Murphy:Cyclones bounce back in a relatively speaking "must win" game at Arrowhead. ISU sets the tone by keeping KU out of the endzone on the Jayhawks first drive. Iowa State 28, Kansas 21.

Downs:Kansas has lost a lot of close games this season. They’ll find a way to win this one. Kansas 28, Iowa State 24.

Van Winkle:With nothing to play for but being the spoiler, Kansas will be out for blood after a heartbreaking loss to K-State in their last game. Iowa State has to clean things up on offense, and I think they will at Arrowhead. This is a great spot on a neutral field for the Cyclones to start ramping up with the Big 12 championship game and CFP within reach. Iowa State 31, Kansas 21.

Brend:I’ll be honest, if Iowa State was 8-0 going into this game, I would’ve picked Kansas to win. I don’t know how ISU will respond after a loss, because we haven’t seen it this year. My gut tells me the offense responds with their first good game since West Virginia. Iowa State 34, Kansas 21.

**

Michigan at Indiana

Peterson: Indiana 34, Michigan 17.

Hassel: Indiana 30, Michigan 13.

Williams: Indiana 24, Michigan 9.

Murphy: Indiana 35, Michigan 21.

Downs: Indiana 34, Michigan 14.

Van Winkle: Indiana 35, Michigan 21.

Brend: Indiana 31, Michigan 16.

**

Washington at Penn State

Peterson: Penn State 30, Washington 20.

Hassel: Penn State 31, Washington 16.

Williams: Penn State 40, Washington 14.

Murphy: Penn State 42, Washington 17.

Downs: Penn State 27, Washington 13.

Van Winkle: Penn State 27, Washington 20.

Brend: Penn State 31, Washington 13.

**

Colorado at Texas Tech

Peterson: Texas Tech 38, Colorado 35.

Hassel: Colorado 38, Texas Tech 35.

Williams: Texas Tech 41, Colorado 40.

Murphy: Colorado 34, Texas Tech 24.

Downs: Colorado 35, Texas Tech 24.

Van Winkle: Colorado 35, Texas Tech 28.

Brend: Colorado 40, Texas Tech 33.

**

BYU at Utah

Peterson: Utah 23, BYU 17.

Hassel: Utah 17, BYU 16.

Williams: BYU 20, Utah 17.

Murphy: BYU 24, Utah 21.

Downs: BYU 24, Utah 10.

Van Winkle: BYU 28, Utah 10.

Brend: BYU 26, Utah 17.

(Randy Peterson can be reached at randypete4846@gmail.com or at any Okoboji-area beverage/food establishment between the hours of open and close)