PETERSON: Football predictions, plus Iowa State's T.J., Otzelberger is good, but he's still got a ways to go to catch Bill Fennelly

Randy PetersonRandy Peterson

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November 13, 2025

Here’s a little-known accomplishment that deserves attention:

T.J Otzelberger can become the first Iowa State men’s basketball coach to lead teams to five NCAA Tournaments in a row. Make the 2026 Big Dance, and that’ll be one more than Fred Hoiberg accomplished between the 2011-12 and 2014-15 seasons.

To make this statistic stand out even more, if this season’s team reaches the Tournament, Otzelberger will be 5-for-5 – five NCAA Tournaments for each season he’s been the Iowa State coach.

But there’s more . . .

Otzelberger is 18 wins shy of passing Hoiberg for fourth on the men’s career coaching list – and his fifth season has barely started. T.J. entered this season with 95 wins, and stands at 98 after Monday’s 96-80 win in Sioux Falls, S.D., against Mississippi State. Hoiberg left for the Chicago Bulls after five Cyclones seasons and 115 wins.

But there’s more . . .

Despite his success, Otzelberger is unlikely to surpass what Iowa state’s Master Coach -- women’s coach Bill Fennelly has going on. He entered this season with 636 career Cyclones coaching wins in 29 seasons. He’s got roughly a 500-win lead on T.J.

If Otzelberger coaches at Iowa State that long, he’ll be in his mid-70s. On second thought, maybe he’ll be coaching the Cyclones that long. I’ve always called this his destination job – and I still believe it.

I know some fans who hope that’s the case.

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Iowa State fans have off-the-charts expectations for their basketball, and that narrative is legitimate. Fennelly and Otzelberger could be coaching their best Cyclones teams – or at least close to their best.

Fennelly coaches an array of stars headlined, of course, by all-world Audi Crooks, and how about the men’s team?

With Tamin Lipsey, Milan Momcilovic and Joshua Jefferson easily among the Big 12’s best – a third Sweet Sixteen in Otzelberger’s fifth season?

Maybe, and why not, but first, this word about reality.

Fans in general and not just at Iowa State, tend to reach for the stars this time of the year. Football is almost over. Hoops has started with a slew of non-conference games and pre-season tournaments.

Keep away from serious injuries, and it’s possible both Iowa State basketball teams make runs. Like we’ve seen during football, a major injury or two can be debilitating.

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While sitting in the cramped seats at the Sanford Pentagon Monday night in Sioux Falls, I may have noticed something you didn’t see on TV.

Otzelberger actually sat on the bench for brief stretches of what became a blowout. Usually a sidelines Energizer Bunny, regardless of score, Otzelberger sitting during some possessions showed me that this team is so good, that he sometimes has the luxury of kicking back and enjoying – just like the rest of us.

What’s not to like? His hard-working team simply wore down Mississippi State. The Bulldogs clearly were pooped – and Iowa State wasn’t.
Lipsey scored a career-high 25 points, while helping Iowa State force an eye-popping 26 turnovers. Newcomers are playing like they’ve been Cyclones forever. Newcomers like 6-foot-10 Virginia transfer Blake Buchanan, whose impressive stat line included 13 points, six rebounds, four assists, three blocks and a steal in 31 minutes. 

Games in Las Vegas on Nov. 24 against St. Johns, and Nov. 25 against Creighton will be interesting.

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The Iowa Everywhere staff gives their best shot at predicting top local interest weekend games. And for those who care, our cumulative straight-up score is: Williams 45-20, Peterson 45-20, Brend 44-21, Downs 42-23, Hassel 41-24, Van Winkle 41-24. For entertainment purposes only. Of course. Here we go again:

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IOWA at USC

Randy Peterson: A big deal will be made about Iowa having to travel west. I don’t buy it. Football players are resilient. They travel on chartered planes. They stay in luxury hotels. Team managers carry bags. This will be USC’s Big Ten-best offense, against one of the best defenses. No Oregon-game hangover. Iowa 31, USC 27.

Chris Williams: Super weird game here. Iowa has to get off of the deck after last week’s heartbreak. Can they? Well, it feels like it’ll help that there’s a 100 percent chancy of heavy rain in Los Angeles on Saturday. That no doubts favor Iowa. However, the Trojans are one of the best running teams in the country. They out-toughed Michigan last month and we saw them do the same at Nebraska two weeks ago. Tough spot for Iowa, but I love the weather aspect of this. However, this is such a big game for USC, a team that controls its own Playoff destiny.
USC 20, Iowa 17

Chris Hassel: Iowa continues to prove that they can play with really good teams. All they have left to prove is that they can actually beat one. USC isn’t as good as Oregon or Indiana. I have faith that the Hawkeyes will finally get their signature win. Iowa 30, USC 27.  

Andrew Downs: This may be heart more than head (again) but I think Iowa is a good football team who can play with just about anyone. West coast trips have been disastrous for Kirk Ferentz but this time is different, thanks to another late score by Mark Gronowski. Iowa 24, USC 23.

Matt Van Winkle: USC has been great at home this season, so it's no surprise they are a touchdown favorite here. Iowa gets another opportunity for a ranked win. They've played every team tough this season and I see this being another tight game. Give me USC, but Iowa covers. USC 31, Iowa 27.

Jake Brend: I came away super impressed with Iowa on Saturday, despite the loss. Coming off of a loss like that, I’d bet on Kirk Ferentz in a spot like this 9 times out of 10… except if it’s on the west coast. Iowa plays well but I can’t pick Kirk to win out west until he does it. USC 23, Iowa 20.

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ARIZONA at CINCINNATI

Randy Peterson: Cincinnati 30, Arizona 27

Chris Williams: Cincinnati 34, Arizona 27

Chris Hassel: Cincinnati 34, Arizona 24

Andrew Downs: Cincinnati 34, Arizona 21

Matt Van Winkle: Cincinnati 34, Arizona 27

Jake Brend: Cincinnati 33, Arizona 21

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TCU at BYU

Randy Peterson: BYU 34, TCU 28

Chris Williams: BYU 24, TCU 20

Chris Hassel: BYU 31, TCU 20

Andrew Downs: BYU 30, TCU 24

Matt Van Winkle: BYU 31, TCU 17

Jake Brend: BYU 30, TCU 23

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UTAH at BAYLOR

Randy Peterson: Utah 30, Baylor 27

Chris Williams: Utah 28, Baylor 21

Chris Hassel: Utah 27, Baylor 20

Andrew Downs: Utah 42, Baylor 24

Matt Van Winkle: Utah 34, Baylor 24

Jake Brend: Utah 23, Baylor 14

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MICHIGAN at NORTHWESTERN

Randy Peterson: Michigan 31, Northwestern 17

Chris Williams: Michigan 27, Northwestern 21

Chris Hassel: Michigan 23, Northwestern 16

Andrew Downs: Michigan 28, Northwestern 27

Matt Van Winkle: Michigan 30, Northwestern 21

Jake Brend: Northwestern 17, Michigan 14

(Columnist Randy Peterson, a past Iowa Sportswriter of the Year winner, can be reached at randypete4846@gmail.com or at any Okoboji-area beverage/food establishment between the hours of open and close.)